I have little doubt that the media will be rapidly changed by technology (primarily the internet and mobile phones), and it is not too difficult to think up the most likely scenarios of that change, however this is a diffiult change for investors to profit from.

The general direction is easy to see: there are more types of media, more distribution channels and much lower costs of distribution. The new distribution methods which replace the old have far greater capacity – digital radio and television can carry far more broadcasts with the same amount of radio spectrum, while the internet and telecoms networks in general can carry was many individual channels as are set up.

Lower costs and together with the new distribution channels imply that fragmentation of the media has a long way to go. The web gives us some indication of the possibilities with giant websites that everyone uses (such as Google) existing side by side with tiny ones run by individuals and everything in between.

The biggest change across media is that the cost of distribution and the cost of entry will drop. This means that lower revenues and lower margins should both be expected. The most obvious example of lower costs of distribution is for music (and audio in general) where an virtually free internet download can replace the sale of a physical CD, however the same applies to video, radio etc. Music also provides good example of the lower costs of entry. Setting up global distribution for CDs is expensive, electronic global distribution is very cheap and easy, making the recorded music companies redundant – although global marketing is still difficult and gives them an opportunity to survive a little longer.

However the lower costs will not only apply to distribution, they will also apply to production. consider films: they are becoming increasing reliant on special effects, at the same time the costs of creating special effects is falling. Eventually talented small groups will be able to put together films with very professional production quality.

The shift will be one that is from the media conglomerates to the creators of content, as these by and large are individuals or small groups this is bad news for investors – you can not buy shares in authors or bands.