Blog split
I have effectively split this blog into two. I will stop posting on investment and finance related topics here, and instead post on my new blog on my Moneyterms site. (more…)
Wogen not irrationally priced
at 12:56 pm on Friday, 10 August 2007
Richard Beddard appears to be willing to agree with me that most active investors will under-perform. We still disagree about how investors’ chances of out-performing are. Richard has focused on a particular company , Wogen, as an example of irrational underpricing. Naturally, it is now essential that I poke a few holes in his bullish analysis. (more…)
The end of academic publishing
at 7:20 am on Thursday, 26 July 2007
It has been clear to many analysts (including myself) for years that publishers of academic journals were facing the slow death of their business. Despite the view of publishers and the more optimistic analysts that peer reviews journals were irreplaceable, the evidence continues to emerge for a slow, but certain, decline. (more…)
Will equity returns stay high
at 9:44 am on Saturday, 21 July 2007
The fascinating information on the drivers of returns on equities between the fifties and the nineties dug up by Richard Beddard, has a worrying aspect. Much of the gain came from one-off changes, so returns may not be as good in the future. (more…)
Emerging markets, inflation and currency risk
at 1:12 pm on Thursday, 12 April 2007
A post at Interactive Investor Blog on the nominal good performance of Zimbabwe’s stock exchange, is a useful reminder of the importance of real returns. This works both ways, and is why equity investors should not worry too much about currency risk. (more…)
Can Woolworths recover?
at 9:04 am on Thursday, 12 April 2007
I have never liked Woolworths, with its weak brand, unfocused retail format, and uncertain wholesale business. Now, at a time when things could not look worse, I am changing my mind. (more…)
Vodafone’s loss that wasn’t
According to most of the press Vodafone made a £15bn loss in the 2005/6 financial year. The largest loss ever made by a British company. In fact, it would be more accurate to say that the company made a real profit but an accounting loss. (more…)
Skyepharma - problems solved, price still down
at 12:03 pm on Monday, 2 May 2005
Either the market is simply not prepared to be anything but negative on Skyepharma or I am missing something. The problems with Paxil continue, but Skyepharma has been shielded from the effects of this by a new agreement with Glaxosmithkline’s which gives Skyepharma the royalties on the budgeted sales until normal sales resume.
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Compass profit warning
at 8:12 am on Friday, 1 April 2005
I seem to be getting rather obsessed with strong market reactions to bad news, following my recent piece on Skyepharma with this. This time its Compass. Yesterday the price fell 5% on the back of a fairly minor profit warning.
Compass announced £24m in lower profits and extra costs, 3.7% of forecast EBIT, and with no change to cashflow expectations. (more…)
Skyepharma - Paxil manufacturing problems
at 2:02 pm on Monday, 7 March 2005
Skyepharma bounced a little today but it is still well down on two days ago and is at low levels against historical prices - it has rarely gone below 50p since mid-2003 and has gone above 70p several times since then, most recently late last year. Of course it has always been fairly volatile but I was a little surprised at how sharp a reaction there was to the news of Glaxo’s manufacturing problems with Paxil CR.
Firstly, Skyepharma does not manufacture Paxil CR, it helped develop it and receives a (small percentage) royalty which does bring substantial income because Paxil brings Glaxo such huge revenues. On the face of it the effects of the problems should be that Skyepharma loses a fair amount of revenues (all the royalties from Paxil CR’s US sales, i.e. most of it) for about six months and then things slowly go back to normal, by next year everything should be back to normal. This does not look like something that should have much impact on how much Skyepharma is worth. (more…)
