The greater fool effect outside bubbles
The greater fool effect is well established as a key mechanism that allows bubbles to inflate to ludicrous valuations: investors who know prices are too high keep buying. Prices can stay too high in a similar way outside a bubble: not necessarily massively over-valued or in the context of a broader market bubble. (more…)
The unnoticed megatrend
Investors, and others who try to predict the future, are often fond of thinking in terms of megatrends. Changes in demographics, climate, technology and culture are often discussed. One that I believe to be the most significant of all is rarely mentioned, and I have never seen the implications discussed. It is also hard to accept, because it appears to be disproved by experience. (more…)
What is wrong with price/book value
As so often, Richard Beddard tweeted something interesting that I had to respond to.
The linked PDF argues that price to book value is the most useful valuation measure, more so that earnigs, for two reasons: (more…)
Nokia + MS: two failures do not make a success
There are two things that strike me about the alliance agreed between Nokia and Microsoft:
- Combining Nokia’s failed smartphone strategy, with Microsoft’s failed smartphone operating system, is not a receipe for success.
- Nokia will now have three smartphone platforms, possibly falling back to two. This continued fragmentation is hardly a great way to get the critical mass then need.
The Huffington Post and AOL
The Huffington Post may not be a bad buy at the price AOL is paying, but that does not mean that AOL is right to buy it. (more…)
Risk and rationality, investment and life
Its fairly obvious that people are not, except for a few analytical souls, rational about risk: they worry obsessively about small risks and ignore ones that matter, and they are often no more rational about investing. (more…)
Volatility is the best risk measure
I have just rewritten the Moneyterms article on volatility to cover common criticisms of volatility as a risk measure. The key points are that volatility makes intuitive sense when considered properly, correctly corrects for increased upside, and that the critics are unable to come up with a better measure.
Demand Media IPO
I usually comment only on British companies (as investments, that is), but I also like to keep an eye on tech and internet companies, and on anything that illustrates a point. Demand Media falls in to both categories. (more…)
Great crash and credit crunch similarities.
I have been reading Galbraith’s The Great Crash of 1929 and a lot of similarities have struck me, not all of which seem to have been noticed by everyone. (more…)
Gold is not an investment
Richard Beddard has been annoying the gold bugs. This puts me in the unusual position of agreeing with him. (more…)
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