The Huffington Post and AOL
The Huffington Post may not be a bad buy at the price AOL is paying, but that does not mean that AOL is right to buy it. (more…)
Is global warming real? I fail to find out.
Having said I do not trust predictions made by climate models, I have tried looking at the data to see if global warming is happening. In principle this ought to be quite simple, but what I found was a morass of bad and missing data that makes it extremely difficult if not impossible. (more…)
The plutocracy is no meritocracy
Many of the spate of recent articles on the super-rich, such as the influential one in The Atlantic have accepted the idea that the plutocracy is meritocratic: the wealth is earned. I have my doubts, and had a look at how and where the richest of the super-rich made their money. (more…)
Don’t trust complex climate models
My previous post did not make it clear why climate models are so similar to complex financial models, which failed so spectacularly. (more…)
Why democracy will die
In the 1990s it looked as though democracy was spreading irresistibly. Not only do I think this trend has reversed, but that there will be very little public objection to it, and the push-back against it will be comparatively little even from those who seek to oppose it. It will happen slowly, but democracy is dying. (more…)
The internet as an instrument of control
Conventional wisdom has long been that the internet (and IT and modern telecommunications) are hard for governments to control and empower anyone willing to use them — activists and protesters in particular. I have long been sceptical, but I think its now clear I was right. (more…)
Risk and rationality, investment and life
Its fairly obvious that people are not, except for a few analytical souls, rational about risk: they worry obsessively about small risks and ignore ones that matter, and they are often no more rational about investing. (more…)
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Financial models and climate models
A few years ago we were assured that complex financial models used by banks could be relied on to correctly assess financial risk. This was supposed to ensure that banks would stay solvent, and the financial system stable. It turned out that insufficient back-testing, subtle pressure on those building the models to produce the “right” results, and the intrinsic problems of complex models, meant that the models were far from good enough.
We are also asked to trust complex models of climate change that predict rising temperatures. I am inclined to distrust complex models in general, but leaving that aside, are these likely to suffer the shortcomings of the bank’s risk models? (more…)
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Mint XFCE: worst Linux ever
The XFCE version of Linux Mint is pretty, fast, uses the huge Debian/Ubuntu software repositories, and comes with a good selection of software installed by default, as well as Linux Mint’s nice utilities. Its also the worst Linux distribution I have tried. (more…)
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Volatility is the best risk measure
I have just rewritten the Moneyterms article on volatility to cover common criticisms of volatility as a risk measure. The key points are that volatility makes intuitive sense when considered properly, correctly corrects for increased upside, and that the critics are unable to come up with a better measure.
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