More bull market?
FT Alphaville is skeptical of Morgan Stanley strategist Teun Draaisma’s bullish outlook. Looking at the arguments he makes in detail, I think he has a point, although I would be more worried about the downside. (more…)
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Wogen not irrationally priced
Richard Beddard appears to be willing to agree with me that most active investors will under-perform. We still disagree about how investors’ chances of out-performing are. Richard has focused on a particular company , Wogen, as an example of irrational underpricing. Naturally, it is now essential that I poke a few holes in his bullish analysis. (more…)
Lifecycle investing: when to switch?
The comments on a recent post questioned whether life cycle investing is a good idea. I think the idea is sound, but I think it is important to point out that thinking purely in terms of terminal wealth at retirement over-simplifies things. (more…)
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Choosing tracker funds
In a comment on my recent post on why investor’s should not try to out-perform, Robin Sole brought up the important issue of how to choose tracker funds, and the lack of a good totally passive approach to investment. (more…)
What to avoid: Large cap growth
Given the size effect and the value effect, it would appear that the worst investment style is large cap growth. I spent some time looking at returns on the French Fama research portfolios and both effects seem to hold, but with some interesting twists. (more…)
The end of academic publishing
It has been clear to many analysts (including myself) for years that publishers of academic journals were facing the slow death of their business. Despite the view of publishers and the more optimistic analysts that peer reviews journals were irreplaceable, the evidence continues to emerge for a slow, but certain, decline. (more…)
You, investor, are a sucker: part 2
Richard Beddard’s response to my previous post, is not the end of the argument, although I will go along with his approach and answer his questionnaire.
My view of what it takes to out-perform is not very different from Richard’s, but it is an arithmetical necessity that most investors will not out-perform. I am very skeptical of anyone who claims that they are in the minority who can reliably do so. (more…)
The City and the tax haven
Richard Murphy has a good definition of a tax haven, but I disagree with his idea that having a large financial services sector is an important characteristic, although I do agree with his view that the UK and Ireland are both tax havens. (more…)
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Will equity returns stay high?
The fascinating information on the drivers of returns on equities between the fifties and the nineties dug up by Richard Beddard, has a worrying aspect. Much of the gain came from one-off changes, so returns may not be as good in the future. (more…)
Moneysupermarket IPO and web business valuation
Whenever there is a website IPO, those of us with profitable websites pay attention. While a small, privately owned website will need to be valued at a steep discount to a large, listed business, it is a useful indicator of value. (more…)
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